A Lifecycle Approach for Scenario Driven Decision Systems
نویسندگان
چکیده
Herman Kahn, a military strategist at Rand Corporation, first applied the term scenario to planning in the 1950s (Schoemaker, 1993). Scenarios are constructed for discovering possibilities, leading to a projection of the most likely alternative. Scenarios offer a dynamic view of possible futures (Weinstein, 2007; NIC, 2004). Scenarios are not forecasts (Schwartz, 1991), predictions (Weinstein, 2007), future plans (Epstein, 1998), trend analyses or analyses of the past. It is for strategy identification rather than strategy development (Schoemaker, 1993) and to anticipate and understand risk and to discover new options for action. Ritson (1997) agrees with Schoemaker (1995) and explains that abStract
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